Severe Winter Storm

Table of Contents

Severe winter storms can produce an array of hazardous weather conditions, including heavy snow, freezing rain and ice, high winds and extreme cold. Severe winter storms are usually extra-tropical cyclones (storms that form outside of the warm tropics) fueled by strong temperature gradients and an active upper-level cold jet stream. Winter storms can paralyze a community by shutting down normal day-to-day operations, as accumulating snow and ice result in downed trees, power outages and blocked or hazardous transportation routes. Heavy snow can also lead to the collapse of weak roofs or unstable structures. Frequently the loss of electric power means loss of heat for residents, which poses a significant threat to human life, particularly the elderly. Winter storms also make the response and recovery efforts more difficult and needs for specialized equipment. A severe winter storm is defined as one that produces six inches or more of snow in 48 hours or less, or damaging ice over 5,000 square miles.

Background

What is a severe winter storm?

Severe winter storms can produce an array of hazardous weather conditions, including heavy snow, freezing rain and ice, high winds and extreme cold. Severe winter storms are usually extra-tropical cyclones (storms that form outside of the warm tropics) fueled by strong
temperature gradients and an active upper-level cold jet stream.

Types of winter storms

Blizzards are characterized by low temperatures, usually following below 20 degrees Fahrenheit, and accompanied by winds that are 30 mph or greater. The amount of following and/or blowing snow reduces visibility to ¼ mile or less for at least three hours. During a severe blizzard, temperatures are at or below 10 degrees Fahrenheit with winds exceeding 45 mph and visibility reduced to zero due to snow. These storm systems most often form when the jet stream dips far to the south, allowing cold air from the north to clash with warm air from the south. The blizzard conditions develop on the northwest side of these storm systems.

Ice storms occur when freezing rain accumulate to at least ¼ inch or more. The freezing rain is caused by rain droplets that encounter freezing or sub-freezing temperatures on the surface. The rain freezes on contact with the ground or on objects near the surface. Ice accumulates on roads, tree limbs, power lines, etc. as the rain freezes creating hazardous driving conditions and power outages

Past events + Location

Between 2000 and 2020, the KIPDA Region received 4 FEMA disaster declarations for severe storms.

  • DR-1454-KY: Severe Winter Storms (2003)
  • DR-1578-KY: Severe Winter Storm & Snow Record (2004)
  • EM-3302-KY/DR-1818-KY: Severe Winter Storm (2009)
  • DR-4218-KY: Severe Winter Storm, Snowstorm, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides (2015)

The table below displays ice storm, winter storms, and heavy snow events that were reported to NOAA and NWS between 2000 and 2020. While not each of these events received a FEMA declaration, each showed clear characteristics of a severe winter storm [1].

View data here

Extent

Severe winter storms are classified as non-spatial hazards and evaluated at the county level. The following information identifies the highest ice and snow accumulation experienced in each county between 2000 and 2020. For extent by event, use the table or click on the view data button [1].

  • Bullitt County
    • December 15, 2010: .5 inches of ice fell countywide.
    • March 5,2015: 12 to 18 inches of wet, heavy snow had accumulated.
  • Henry County
    • March 4, 2015: 7 to 12 inches of snow fell countywide.
    • January 12, 2018: .10 to .15 inches of ice fell countywide.
  • Oldham County
    • January 27, 2009: .75 inches of ice fell countywide.
    • February 16, 2015: 6 to 7 inches of snow fell countywide.
  • Shelby County
    • January 27,2009: .5 inches of ice fell countywide.
    • February 16,2015: 8 inches of snow fell countywide.
  • Spencer County
    • January 27,2009: .5 inches of ice fell countywide.
    • February 16,2015: 8 to 9 inches of snow fell countywide. 
  • Trimble County
    • January 27,2009: .75 inches of freezing rain/ice fell countywide.
    • March 4,2015: 6 to 10 inches of snow fell countywide. 

Probability

Occurrence

Between 2000 and 2020 (21 years), the KIPDA region experienced 33 distinct winter storm events. Please note that winter storm events, which share the same episode number from NCEI, are classified as the same event [1].

  • Bullitt County: 25 winter storm events/21 years = 1.2 winter storm events annually
  • Henry County: 25 winter storm events/21 years = 1.2 winter storm events annually
  • Oldham County: 23 winter storm events/21 years = 1.1 winter storm events annually
  • Shelby County: 23 winter storm events/21 years = 1.1 winter storm events annually
  • Spencer County: 21 winter storm events/21 years= 1 winter storm event annually
  • Trimble: 21 winter storm events/21 years = 1 winter storm event annually

Climate Change

The overall increase in global atmospheric temperature means that the air is increasingly able to hold moisture. This moisture will fall in some form of precipitation, most commonly as rain or snow, depending on the season. [2] Although some regions may get colder or experience a higher frequency of extreme cold events, they will not experience an increase in precipitation as snow. This depends on the region and its specific characteristics.

The lower Midwest and the South have experienced a decrease in the amount of snowfall during the last century. The temperatures in the Midwest and in Kentucky specifically have increased on average during the winter, but the occurrence of extreme cold events might increase. [2] [3] The 2019 cold front that swept through the region shows that the fragmentation of the polar vortex might also cause colder weather, although this may not occur every year. [4] This leaves the effect of climate change on severe winter storms in Kentucky uncertain. There is an expected increase in precipitation in the winter, but this is likely to be in the form of rain, not snow. [5] The expected and observed increase in wind chills is also a factor, as increased wind speeds would lead to more storms.

Overall Probability

Overall, the KIPDA HMP ranks the probability of a severe winter storm event for the region as high. 

Impact + Vulnerability

Property Data

The dashboard below shows residential property damage claims related to ice, snow, and freezing in the KIPDA region between 2010 and 2020.  These claims predominately cover single family and multi-family dwellings; however, a few commercial properties may be contained within the data. KIPDA obtained this anonymized data from Verisk’s Exactware program, which runs ExactAnalysis. ExactAnalysis is the largest full-cycle claims management software and reporting tool in the property insurance industry. In the past, hazard mitigation plans have used estimates from NCEI; these figures rely on local reporting and do not typically capture property loss. Therefore, this data from the ExactAnalysis program has provided a more robust data set on the true cost of severe winter storm events.

View data here

Because this data has never been used for hazard mitigation planning before, KIPDA’s GIS analyst conducted extensive cleaning. To learn more about this process, click the data cleaning toggle below. 

Data Cleaning

Claims Data Cleanup Actions Taken 

Sort Ascending by Value; delete all 0 and negative (-) values in “Gross Estimate Amount” column (10924 rows had Zero for the amount 22.5% of total data) 

Many suspect values remain ($1, etc.  basically anything less than a deductible (typically $500 or  

$1000) is suspicious to me and seems like that can’t be accurate (another 3320 have values under $500 and 6110 less than $1k) 

Look at numeric “Type of Loss”  able to ID that 104 – Wind and 150 – Water… need other numeric codes to ID type of hazard and make those rows useful… (Deleted all other numeric values (26 rows) for now, can restore from clean dataset later if desired) 

Assumed GL69 = General Liability  

Deleted “Type of Loss” 111-Theft(1); “All Other/ All Other Peril Not Enumerated/All other Perils/ All Other Physical Damage/ AOPD/APLWTR-APL (assumed this is appliance?)” (276) because doesn’t help our purposes if not associated with a NATURAL hazard; “Backup of sewer or drain (Sump Pump/Faulty Drain)”(10) 

Skipped to Cause of Loss column because those details may be more helpful at initial elimination of non-weather related claims: Deleted “pipe burst …..”(1); “accidental breakage by insured”(1); “all other(FIRE)” because no wildfires that year; “animals/ insects” (1); “appliance”(12); “auto driven by nonresident”(1); “Back-up sewer drain/ bathroom sink clogged/ bathtub related/ broken pipe”(131); “Theft/ Burglary” (11); “candle” (6); “car ran through and destroyed(impact by vehicle)”(1); “cigarette smoking” (2); “fire sub loss” no wildfires in 2017 (1); “water damage toilet malfun”(1); “COL: water Sub Loss: escape from ap” (sounds like appliance?)(1); “contamination/pollution” (1) doesn’t specify source so  unsure if natural hazard related; “cooking(FIRE)” (35); “Damage from vehicle – insured owned”(1); “Damage to Dwelling(Vandalism)”(5); “Damage to bathroom flooring(1)”; “damages to Claimant vehicle(CPL?)”(1); “Defective Appliances”(6); “Drain Bck (Drain backup??)”(4); “Dryer(FIRE)”(1); “Electric Baseboard Heater”(1); “Electrical Fire”(8); “Equipment(WATER)” (5); “Falling Objects”(1) unspecified source?; “Faulty Drain”(3); “Faulty Wiring”(20); “Fire”(20) verified date/location didn’t match wildfire data; “Fire-All other/Fireplace/Grease Fire”(3); “Fire Caused by Appliance”(5); “Fire Electrical” (1); “Fire External Source”(1)”; “Fire Total” (1);  “Fireplace/SolidFuel/Chimney” (21); “Fire Erupted From Brush Hazard” (4) verified does not coincide with wildfire dates; “FNOL….. (Water/ Wind)” (4); “Frozen Pipe (Weather Related – No/ Non-weather)” (4); “Fungi/Bacteria”(1); “Furnace”(3); “Grease Fire in Kitchen”(13); “HVAC” (1); “int and ext damage (VANDALISM)” (1); “Jewelry Missing from home” (2); “Kitchen/ other than grease (FIRE)” (7); “leaking pipe…”(1); “Light(OTHER)” (2); “Light(WATER DAMAGE – APPLIANCE)”(1); “Moderate(OTHER/UNKNOWN)(1); “mold general/in kitchen(MOLD/OTHER)” (2); “Nearby Fire (SMOKE)”(2); “None(FIRE)”(2); “off Premises/ on premises (THEFT)”(11); “Other(BACKUP OF SEWER OR DRAIN)”(1); “Other(BURG/BURGLARY THEFT)”(92); “Other(COLLAPSE)”(1); “Other (COLL-VEH)”(5); “Other(DAMAGE BY VEHICLE WATERCRAFT)”(1); “Other(DRAIN BCK)”(8); “Other(FALLING OBJECT)” (9) Verified not on same date as a quake; “other(FIRE)”(85) Verified not on/near date/location of wildfire, (1) entry excluded from deletion because close to date/location of a wildfire; “Other (FIRE-APPL/COOK/ELEC/FIRPL/GASLK/OTHER/PORT/SMOKE/VEH/UNDT”(43); “Other(HURRICANE)(1)”; “Other(LIABILITY)”(1); “Other(MISCHIEF)”(1); “Other(MOLD/FUNGI)”(1); “Other(MYSTERIOUS DISAPPEARANCE)”(1); “Other(NONPF/SURG)”(1); “Other(NONWIND)”(5); “Other (OTH-AOC)”??? (55); “Other(OTHER)”(155); “Other (OTH-LOST/MOV/STC/VMM)”(9); “Other(PFSG-oth/pf/surge)”(4) Power failure?; “Other(PLBWTR-PLB/ PLUMBING)”(10); “Other(POWER OUTAGE)”(1); “Other(PRODUCT LIABILITY CLAIM)”(1); “Other (PROPERTY DAMAGE- All others)”(1); “Other (Sewage/drain/backup/sump pump)”(31); “Other(Smoke)”(4); “Other(Smpwtr-sum)”(1); “Other(STCOTH-STC)”(2); “Other (THEFT/Auto/nonauto/onp)”(44); “Other (Unknown LCI)”(4); “Other(Vandalism/malicious mischief)”(19); “other(VEHICLE)”(32); “Other(Vehicle damage)”(2); “Other (Wat/WATER/WATER DAMAGE/ NONWEATHER)” (370) left entries that specified “weather”; “Other(WATER/PLUMBING/Appliance/Other/Overflow)”(107); “Other(Weather related-no)”(9); “Other(WTR-APL/DAM)”(119): “Other(WTR-PLB)”(353); “Other(WTR-SUM)sump pump?(86); “Other- Narrative Required (FIRE) verified not coinciding location/date of wildfire (20); “Other – Narr Req (Mysterious Disappearance/ Sewer Backup/Vandalism/Water)” (17); “Other Non-Weather Related (WATER)” (23); “Other-Physical Damage”(1); “…foyer ceiling (WATER)”(1); “Pipe Burst / Pipe Burst– Non Weather Related(WATER)” Kept “weather related” entries (80); “Place of Business(THEFT)”(1); “Plmbg – xxx (WATER)”(26); “Plug-in Electric Heater”(1); “Plumbing/Leak (Water/ weather related-no/Water damage/Water non-weather)”(241); “Power Surge”(1); “…slow leak…”(1); “Roof Leak (Weather Related-No)” (1); “Roof Leak – Poor Cond.” (8); “Roof/Exterior Leak (Weather related – no)” (2); “Settlement Related Damage”(1); “Sewage”(1); “Sewer Back-Up from Appliance/Sink/etc.”(12); “Shower Pan”(2); “Sink Related”(9); “Sink/Tub/Toilet Overflow”(1); “Smoke(SMOKE)”(2); “Smoking (FIRE)” (6); “sub Loss: (MOLD)” (1); “escape from appli (WATER)”(3); “Sub Type lost…(THEFT)”(1); “sump pump (ALL)” (41); “water pipe broke and flooded…(WATER)”(2); “Theft (ALL)” (49); “Toilet… (WATER)”(99); “Undetermined (FIRE)”(2); “Unoccupied Dwelling (Vandalism)”(1); “Vandalism/ Mischief (all)”(18); “Vehicle”(20); “Washer Hose/ Washing Machine”(40); “Water (Liability P.D./ WATER)” unclear if natural hazard related (95); “Water – Appliance/ Other/Backup/External /Internal/Other/Plumbing”(26); “water escape from washer”(3); “Water Heater”(148); “Water Leak from damaged wall”(1); “Water Mold”(2); “Water Pipes”(); “Waterbed Burst”(1); “Weatheproofing Problems”(16) 

Frozen Pipe entries left…but should we try to determine if they were during periods of “Extreme Cold”? Same with “Ice Dam” 

Left “WTR-FLD and WTR-FRZ” on assumption those are flood and freeze related; left wtr-rof assuming that was a leak from the roof and those are usually related to a hazard (hail, etc) 

Left “Rain Damage” and “Roof Leak” water claims for now….  

Left “Weather Related” (Even though they said Drain Backup…) 

Left entries related to weight of ice and snow 

 TONS of Hail entries…TONS of Wind 

Continue “Type of Loss” because all remaining “Cause of Loss” are blank: Delete “*Extended”(99); “150 – Water” deleted due to no info about whether related to weather(11); “Backup of sewer or drain” (2); “Boardup/-up”(2); “Breakage”(1); “Burglary/Theft”(3); “Collapse”(19); “Collision”(18); “Damage by Vehicle”(8); “Drain Bck”(197); “Dwelling”(2); “Ext_wdr”??(1); “Falling Object” no idea what kind or why? (21); “FIRE” checked against wildand fire date/location before deleting (872); “fire or removal” (3); “general Liability/ GL69” (6); “Glass Breakage”(4); “Hurricane”(4) checked against hurricane records and left ones that coincided with dates storms reached KY; “Insured Travel Trailer…”(1); “Liability”(8); “Mischief”(2); “Mold/Fungi”(5); “Motor Vehicles”(1); “Mysterious Disappearance”(38); “Other”(535) kept weather related; “Plumbing”(17); “Powersurge”(1); “Product Liability Claim”(3); “Property/ Damage/All others/water”(8); “Renovation”(1); “Sewage/Sewer/Backup”(63); “Smoke/Damage”(39); “Tarping”(1); “Theft/OtherThan/FromAuto/OnP” (620);  “Unknown/LCI”(234); “Vandalism/Mischief”(140); “Vehicle”(171); “Water/Damage/ApplianceRelated/non-weather”(3761) too many records to look up flood/severe cold events and compare date/ location for possibly flood/cold related…left weather-related and freezing records; “Water Non-Weather”(114); “Water Plum/bing”(10) kept water weather/flood;  “Water/Plumbing”(18); “Water-Appliance”(15); Water-Other”(70); “Water-Overflow”(10); “Water-Plumbing”(42); “Weather Related – no”(3); “Wtr-apl”(1); “Wtroth”(1); “Wtr-sum”(1);  

 27000 of 48541 original records remain after cleanup 

Social Environment

  • Severe winter weather can make car travel incredibly dangerous and potentially fatal. 
  • Snow and/or ice accumulation can weigh down tree limbs. These limbs can break and fall on power lines, which can cause blackouts. This can be particularly dangerous because individuals may be left without heat for prolonged periods during extreme cold conditions. Individuals may resort to heating alternatives during blackouts. These alternatives pose a serious risk if proper ventilation is not in place and/or if the alternative heat source is left unattended. For example, individuals may suffer from carbon monoxide poisoning in homes without proper ventilation. Space heaters and other heating alternatives can also lead to house fires.
    • If a winter weather event impacts power, older adults, persons with limited mobility, and infant are particularly vulnerable to the effects of extreme cold that often accompanies winter weather events. 
  • Extreme cold temperature can lead to frozen pipes and water mains, which can impact an individual’s access to water.
  • Homeless individuals and/or those exposed to the elements during extreme storm events may suffer from frostbite and in extreme cases hypothermia.
  • Severe storms can lead residents to overexert themselves – by shoveling snow, clearing streets, etc. Such overexertion can lead to heart attacks. Because of snow/ice, a person who experiences a heart attack due to overexertion, may be severely delayed in receiving critical medical attention.
    • On March 15, 2015, a 55-year-old man in Bullitt County died of an apparent heart attack after shoveling snow. 

Built Environment

  • Flooding may occur after precipitation has accumulated and then temperatures rise once again which melts snow and ice. In turn, as more snow and ice accumulate, the threat of flooding increases. This can lead to property damage.
  • Severe winter storms can severely damage power lines and utilities.
    • On February 3, 2009, the Henry County Local reported that a winter storm caused thousands across Henry County to lose power. [6]
    • On February 10, 2009, the Spencer County Magnet reported that an ice storm caused thousands across Spencer County to lose power. [7]
    • On February 10, 2009, the 
    • On November 14, 2018, an ice storm caused nearly 5,000 customers across Bullitt County to lose power. [1]
    • On November 14, 2018, an ice storm caused approximately 1,700 customers across Oldham County to lose power. [1]
    • On November 14, 2018, an ice storm caused nearly 2,000 customers across Shelby County to lose power. [1]
    • On January 18, 2018, the Trimble Banner reported that a winter storm caused 882 customers in the Bedford area (Trimble County) to lose power [8].
  • Severe winter storms can also cause structural damage or building collapse.

Natural Environment

  • Snow and ice accumulation can cause tree limbs to snap and break. 

Data Limitations

Winter storms are evaluated at the county level because they are non-spatial hazards and recorded at the county level. 

Hazard Vulnerability Summary Analysis

The KIPDA region experiences high vulnerability to winter storms due to past events, infrastructure impacts, and concern from local officials. Many local officials including emergency managers, county judge executives, and mayors cited ice storms as one of their top concerns. 

Bullitt County

  • Bullitt County has over $99K in property damage claims due to winter storms annually. Property damage data is only available at the county level.
  • Bullitt County has experienced 25 winter storm events/21 years = 1.2 winter storm events annually.
  • A winter storm in 2015 led to a 55-year-old man in Bullitt County dying of an apparent heart attack after shoveling snow. 
  • On November 14, 2018, an ice storm caused nearly 5,000 customers across the county to lose power.
  • Bullitt County has x % of adults over 65.
  • Bullitt County has x number of adults with disabilities.

Because of these factors, Bullitt County experiences  high vulnerability to winter storm events. Bullitt County’s cities reflect Bullitt County’s overall demographic profile, and therefore experience high vulnerability as well. 

Henry County

  • Henry County has around $19K in property damage claims due to winter storms annually. Property damage data is only available at the county level.
  • Henry County has experienced 25 winter storm events/21 years = 1.2 winter storm events annually.
  • On February 3, 2009, the Henry County Local reported that a winter storm caused thousands across the county to lose power.
  • Henry County has x % of adults over 65.
  • Henry County has x number of adults with disabilities.

Because of these factors, Henry County experiences high vulnerability to winter storm events. Henry County’s cities reflect Henry County’s overall demographic profile, and therefore experience high vulnerability as well. 

Oldham County

  • Oldham County has around $89K in property damage claims due to winter storms annually. Property damage data is only available at the county level.
  • Oldham County has experienced 23 winter storm events/21 years = 1.1 winter storm events annually.
  • On November 14, 2018, an ice storm caused approximately 1,700 customers across the county to lose power.
  • Oldham County has x % of adults over 65.Oldham County has x number of adults with disabilities.
  • Oldham County has x % of adults over 65.
  • Oldham County has x number of adults with disabilities.

Because of these factors, Oldham County experiences high vulnerability to winter storm events. Oldham County’s cities reflect Oldham County’s overall demographic profile, and therefore experience high vulnerability as well. 

Shelby County

  • Shelby County has around $94K in property damage claims due to winter storms annually. Property damage data is only available at the county level.
  • Shelby County has experienced 23 winter storm events/21 years = 1.1 winter storm events annually
  • On November 14, 2018, an ice storm caused nearly 2,000 customers across the county to lose power.
  • Shelby County has x % of adults over 65.
  • Shelby County has x number of adults with disabilities.

Because of these factors, Shelby County experiences high vulnerability to winter storm events. Shelby County’s cities reflect Shelby County’s overall demographic profile, and therefore experience high vulnerability as well. 

Spencer County

  • Spencer County has around $25K in property damage claims due to winter storms annually. Property damage data is only available at the county level.
  • Spencer County has experienced 21 winter storm events/21 years = 1 winter storm events annually
  • On February 10, 2009, the Spencer County Magnet reported that an ice storm caused thousands across the county to lose power.
  • Spencer County has x % of adults over 65.
  • Spencer County has x number of adults with disabilities.

Because of these factors, Spencer County experiences  high vulnerability to extreme cold events. Spencer County’s city reflects Spencer County’s overall demographic profile, and therefore experiences high vulnerability as well. 

Trimble County

  • Trimble County has around $11K in property damage claims due to winter storms annually. Property damage data is only available at the county level.
  • Trimble County has experienced 21 winter storm events/21 years = 1 winter storm events annually
  • On January 18, 2018, the Trimble Banner reported that a winter storm caused 882 customers in the Bedford area (Trimble County) to lose power
  • Trimble County has x % of adults over 65.
  • Trimble County has x number of adults with disabilities.

Because of these factors, Trimble County experiences high vulnerability to winter storm events. Trimble County’s city reflects Trimble County’s overall demographic profile, and therefore experiences high vulnerability as well. 

References

[1] National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (2021). Storm Events Database. [Data set]. National Centers for Environmental Information. Retrieved from https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/

[2] Winter Storms. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.climatecommunication.org/new/features/extreme-weather/winterstorms/

[3].‘How is climate change affecting winter in my region?’ ” Yale Climate Connections. (2020, March 03). Retrieved from https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/02/how-is-climate-change-affectingwinter-in-my-region/

[4] Novelly, T. (2019, January 29). Will the polar vortex affect Louisville? Here’s  what to know. Retrieved from https://www.courier-journal.com/ story/weather/local/winter/2019/01/28/polar-vortex-2019-affect-louisvillekentucky/2702488002/

[5] Hayhoe, K., VanDorn, J., Naik, V., & Wuebbles, D. (2019). Climate Change in the Midwest Projections of Future Temperature and Precipitation. Climate Change in the Midwest Projections of Future Temperature and Precipitation. Retrieved from https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/iles/2019-09/midwest-climate-impacts.pdf

[6] Henry County Local Staff. (2009, February 3). Thousands without power, water district operating normally. Henry County Local. Retrieved from https://www.hclocal.com/content/thousands-without-power-water-district-operating-normally

[7] Bass, R. (2009, February 10). Finding power to stay warm. Spencer County Magnet. Retrieved from https://www.spencermagnet.com/content/finding-power-stay-warm

[8] Blair, J. (2018, January 18). Winter weather continues pounding Trimble. Trimble Banner. Retrieved from https://www.mytrimblenews.com/content/winter-weather-continues-pounding-trimble